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From the Magnolia Report Throughout the last week of February, rumors spread like wildfire throughout the state capitol that Governor Ronnie Musgrove was attempting an end run around the Governor’s election by lobbying the state’s College Board to become the president of Delta State University in Cleveland, Mississippi rather than run for reelection. While intrigued by such rumors, some dismissed them at face value as being far fetched. However, the story was soon substantiated in a column written by Daily Journal columnist Bobby Harrison. In the Harrison story, College Board member Bill Crawford of Meridian asserted that the board learned of Musgrove’s “possible interest” in the DSU presidency last week, and decided to move forward with the normal search process to fill the presidency post. “If he (Musgrove) is interested, he should go through the regular process like anyone else,” said Crawford. In an obvious effort to stop the rumor mill bleeding, Musgrove’s Communications staff made public on Friday, February 21, that the Governor had picked up his qualifying papers from the Mississippi Democratic Party, which weren’t due until March 1 for any and all candidates running for office in 2003. However, the rumors persisted and grew over the course of the next few days, with Musgrove apparently continuing the push for the DSU presidency. While most political observers suspected all along that Musgrove would indeed stand for reelection, his pursued interest in the DSU presidency cause some to question whether Musgrove believes that his reelection prospects have become dim over the last few months. Capitol insiders whisper that Musgrove’s own polling shows that his popularity and re-elect numbers are currently pretty dismal. The editor of the Biloxi Sun Herald, Stan Tiner, stated so gracefully in his editorial column Seven Days in February, “At this moment, it became obvious to this pundit that, in the end, Musgrove has probably guaranteed he will neither be president of the university nor reelected governor of the state.” As rumors about Musgrove’s reelection hesitations swirled through political circles on last Thursday, political insider discussions turned to the increasing possibility of the prospect that Jackson plaintiff lawyer John Arthur Eaves, Jr. would soon become a Democratic gubernatorial candidate. Eaves, who has run television advertising over the last several months soliciting plaintiffs for lawsuits, while simultaneously criticizing Musgrove for signing the 2002 tort reform bills into law, had to be buoyed by Musgrove’s indecisiveness over the last few weeks. Political rumor became reality in the Eaves circumstance, as he qualified to challenge Musgrove a few days prior to the deadline. Musgrove finally put an end (or did he?) to the DSU speculation by holding a press conference on Wednesday, February 26, to announce that he would stand for reelection. He turned in his qualifying papers that same day. ********************************************** Political watchers wonder if Brown was urged by forces opposed to Senator Barbara Blackmon’s campaign to enter the race in an obvious effort to dilute Blackmon’s ability to attract the black vote in the Democratic primary. However, there will almost certainly be a great discrepancy in the resources available to the respective campaigns of Blackmon, who has both personal wealth and friends in the plaintiff’s bar that she can call upon. Also, Brown has never demonstrated a knack for political fundraising. This discrepancy should have a tremendous effect on which African American candidates running for Lieutenant Governor are able to get their message out to the black voters in the Democratic primary. The old adage, “Money is the mother’s milk of politics” should apply quite well here. ***************************** With last minute filings by candidates in legislative and statewide races, trial lawyers in Mississippi are mounting a widespread effort to challenge those who supported tort reform in last year’s special session. One interesting late entry is Jackson trial lawyer Mitch Tyner who is running against Haley Barbour in the Republican primary for Governor. “Tyner said he is a longtime Republican•,” reads the Clarion-Ledger on Sunday, March 2. A quick check of recent political contributions (www.fec.gov - www.sos.state.ms.us) by Mitch Tyner may raise eyebrows amongst the Republican faithful. ***************************** 12 Seats were decided on the March 1 filing deadline, consisting of 7 Democrats and 5 Republicans. State Senate
10 Nolan Mettetal Democrat ***************************** The most surprising was in Senate District 19, involving Merle Flowers, who is the only non-incumbent with a free ride. He attributes it to hard work, good organization, and a pile of cash on hand (over $75,000). State Senate
19 Merle Flowers Republican *****************************
Seven more races will be decided in the Democratic primary, where there are not any Republican challengers. Senate District 21, which was held by Barbara Blackmon, is being contested by 5 Democrats and 1 Independent. In Senate District 8, Jack Gordon, Appropriations Chair, is being challenged by Raymond Paden, who is a former superintendent of the Chickasaw County School System. Senate District 39 features a re-match between Cindy Hyde-Smith and W.L. Rayborn. Rayborn, who was the incumbent in '99, was defeated by Hyde-Smith by a mere 1,072 votes (53%-47%). State
Senate 8 Jack Gordon Democrat State Senate
13 Terrence Hurssey, Sr. Democrat State Senate
21 Eugene Fouche' Democrat State
Senate 28 Pam Confer Democrat State Senate
34 Dennis Robinson Democrat State Senate
37 Ruby Bates Democrat State Senate
38 Kelvin Butler Democrat State Senate
39 Cindy Hyde-Smith Democrat *****************************
In Senate District 30, incumbent Senator Dean Kirby, Chairman of the Insurance Committee, will face Monica Baldwin, a pro-life activist who formerly worked for American Family Radio. In Senate District 51, Senator Tommy Robertson, who was one of the Senates strongest advocates of tort reform, is being challenged by Mickie Baria, mother of Mississippi Trial Lawyers Association President David Baria. State Senate
30 Monica Baldwin Republican
***************************** Senate newcomer Charles Walden, narrowly elected in a special election in Senate District 5 last November, will face the man he defeated by 52 votes, J.P. Wilemon. This should be one of the most tightly contested senate races of the year. Wilemon must first get past Democrat Challenger, Brad Morris, who will make his first run at elected office. Recent party switcher Tommy Dickerson will face opposition in the General election, but has a Republican leaning district that will give him an advantage. Senator Alan Nunnelee, Vice-Chairman of the Finance Committee, will face the winner of the Democratic Primary between Doyle Lambert and Sherry Pittman, a former "Teacher of the Year". State Senate
5 Brad Morris Democrat State
Senate 6 Doyle Lambert Democrat State Senate
11 Dwight Barfield Independent State Senate
36 E. Davis Democrat State Senate
43 Tommy Dickerson Republican *****************************
In the Senate District 18 race, Senator Gloria Williamson, former State Democratic Party Chairwoman, will find strong opposition in either Don Fulton, executive at NEMCO (a Philadelphia based garment plant), or Willie Jackson, manager of the Neshoba Gin Association. Fulton may have the fundraising edge over Jackson, but Jackson has deep ties to the county’s Republican activists throughout the district. Whoever emerges from the primary should give Williamson a run for her money. In Senate District 35, Rob Smith is leaving his seat to make a run for Treasurer. Perry Lee of Simpson County has an inside track to pick up the seat for Republicans. He must first get by Cliff Brown in the primary and then will square off against Daniel Ware, who has no Democratic opposition. Incumbent Republican Senator Joe Stogner heads into a tricky race for the Republican nomination. Stogner’s home base is in Sandy Hook, in rural Marion County, where there are few Republican primary votes. He faces two challengers from GOP vote-rich Pearl River County. Duane Wheat currently serves as a Democrat school board official. He initially qualified as a Democrat, but withdrew his nomination and qualified as a Republican. Sidney Albritton, whose father is currently running as a Republican for Public Service Commissioner, is also throwing his hat into the primary race. State Senate
18 Don Fulton Republican State Senate
32 Willie Coleman Republican State Senate
35 Cliff Brown Republican State Senate
40 Sid Albritton Republican State Senate
41 Raylawni Branch Republican *****************************
It will be a horse race in Senate District 2 between Ralph Doxey, son of former Congressman Wall Doxey, and Danny Jackson. Whoever emerges from the primary is likely to win the seat. Incumbent Democrat Senator Nickey Browning, from Pontotoc, has 3 Democrat primary challengers, but should come out on top. Browning will face opposition in the General but should have the decided advantage based on his conservative voting record. In what might be the Senate race of the year, President Pro Tempore Travis Little, who made the big switch to the GOP, will square off against Jerry Barnes in the Republican Primary. Things could get tricky for Little considering in 1999, only 180 votes were cast in the Republican Primary in his home base in Alcorn County. A concerted effort by Little’s foes on both sides of the fence could make this an interesting race to watch. Once he gets through the primary, his strength as President Pro Tempore and as a hometown favorite should see him through. Senate District 15 is going to be another one of the top open seat races to watch in 2003. Minister and popular talk show host, Gary Jackson, will vie for the Republican nomination against Starkville Representative Rob Roberson, whose house district was a casualty of Redistricting. Jackson is a well known quantity around the district, but Roberson has the advantage of incumbency in the vote-rich area of Starkville. Cecil Simmons, a former Democrat legislator, could be pushed by popular Starkville native Gloria Liddell. Conventional wisdom around the district gives Republicans the advantage if Jackson is the nominee based on his strength across the district in both rural communities and Starkville. Former House member, Charles Weissinger of Rolling Fork, and city of Leland activist and Alderwoman, Mala Brooks, face off in a bid to succeed retiring Senator Neely Carlton. Representative Tom Cameron, who lost his House seat to Redistricting, meets Hollandale CPA Buck Clarke, and Greenville native Steve Nick in the Republican Primary. According to the Delta Democrat Times, questions about Tom Cameron’s residency have been cleared up. This race could come down to the wire with the possibility of Independent Candidate, Mark Crawford, playing the spoiler. State
Senate 2 Tom Coward Democrat State Senate
3 Nickey Browning Democrat State Senate
4 Jerry Barnes Republican State Senate
15 Gary Jackson Republican State Senate
22 Mala Brooks Democrat State Senate
29 Cadillac Harris Democrat State Senate
42 Jones Brogdon Democrat State Senate
45 Craig Ducksworth Democrat ***************************** Terry Brown (R), former state representative and 1999 candidate for Lt. Governor, will square off against David Shelton (D),former three term Lowndes County Chancery Clerk, in the General Election. Both are popular candidates, which should lead to a highly contested race, even though the district leans Republican. Complicating Brown’s candidacy is the last minute entrance of Independent candidate Joe Studdard, a local attorney who has the ability to cut into Brown’s base in the New Hope area. The contest in District 48 between first-term incumbent Debbie Dawkins and Long Beach Mayor Robert Bass should be a barn-burner. The district leans Democrat, but Dawkins is a very outspoken and polarizing figure in the community, while Bass has served as Long Beach Mayor. Senate District 9 offers a match-up between incumbent Gray Tollison and former Oxford Mayor Pat Lamar. Tollison has several advantages in the race, but Lamar can win if she can attract rural voters in Lafayette and Yalobusha counties that she is the better choice. Although these are the top three races on the list, keep an eye on the others. Several of these challengers could gain momentum and pose real problems for the incumbents in the fall. State Senate
1 Bobby Chamberlin Republican State Senate
7 Chris Brown Republican State Senate
9 Patricia Lamar Republican State Senate
14 Mark Burton Democrat State Senate
17 Terry Brown Republican State Senate
23 Mike Chaney Republican State Senate
31 Terry Burton Republican State Senate
46 Scottie Cuevas Democrat State Senate
47 Ezell Lee Democrat State Senate
48 Robert Bass Republican State Senate
52 Robert Hooks Democrat |